Re:Radial NCAA Bracket in D3.js
by dmsimpkins on Thursday March 20, 2014 @09:49AM
(#7435480)
I love the look of this, but I have one suggestion to make. If the probability for a particular round is < 1%, I would at least leave one decimal place or show "< 1%" instead of having 0%, since obviously there is still some chance of the team making it to that round, even if it's a fraction of a percent.
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Totally agreed, but I wrote the whole thing yesterday, so some corners got cut.
A bit off topic, but I find it odd how the 16-seed teams are calculated at between 1-4%, even though no 16-seed team has made it past the first round in the entirety of the 64-team tournament (1985: 29 years x 4 teams = 0 for 116).
Not sure how any of these have more than a <1% chance, let alone 4%.
The usual method for calculating these percentages is to calculate a power rating for each team, then to use the log5 formula[1] to arrive at the percentage chance of a team winning.
So, the 1-4% chance of a 16 winning is the result of applying the log5 algorithm to their power ratings.
Also remember that there's only 80 16-vs-1 games in 20 years, and only expanded to 64 teams in 1985, so it's totally possible that there is a 1-4% chance for a 16 to beat a 1 and it just hasn't happened yet.