An impending black swan for electric cars

Re:An impending black swan for electric cars by revelation on Wednesday March 19, 2014 @06:21PM (#7432283)

Such a great buildup, only to completely miss the point. The adoption of computers at a large-scale didn't happen through some magic invention and science breakthrough right before the "revolution". The magic part was the invention of the transistor, everything after that was diligent and relentless steady work to morph it into an affordable piece of consumer gear.

That's exactly what the battery factory will do. That is what Tesla is doing: they are going the long way, not dismissing the technology while waiting for a black swan to appear at the end of a rainbow that will save them. Because there won't be one.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:An impending black swan for electric cars by abruzzi on Wednesday March 19, 2014 @06:34PM (#7432356)

I think more to the point, the computer explosion came from them being useful to the vast majority of people, not just technical people. My old apple 2 or Amiga was not that. Electric cars will explode when they are as useful as gas cars for equivalent costs. If they retain tradeoffs, like range, they will have to be tradeoffs that impact very few people.

I do think that people in metro areas like NY, LA, SF, don't realize what it's like to like in the more sparsely populated parts of the country, and that is still the biggest limitation in my part of the world. 150 miles might be barely adequate _IF_ there were near instant recharges. If I want to test drive a new Ducati, I have to drive 500 miles round trip (and have done it in a single day multiple times)

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:An impending black swan for electric cars by ams6110 on Wednesday March 19, 2014 @07:13PM (#7432543)

The computer explosion happened not because of computers per-se but because of the internet. Email and the web, and later Facebook, Twitter, etc. made computers able to do useful things. If that had never happened, the majority of the public would have little use for computers.

So you're right, the electric car will become practical for people not because of any capability of the car itself, they are already more than adequate in that regard. It's the batteries. When we have some way to get similar range and speed and ease of recharging as pumping 10 or 20 gallons of gasoline, they will be practical for most people. Not really before and until that happens.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:An impending black swan for electric cars by epicgon on Wednesday March 19, 2014 @09:03PM (#7433087)

The PC revolution was still occurring even for people who didn't have Internet Access.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:An impending black swan for electric cars by mncolinlee on Friday March 21, 2014 @12:44PM (#7443275)

The recharges and station availability are more the problem. The Tesla Model S has longer range than a good number of popular gas cars including several Ford Mustang models.

The solutions already exist if we find a way to deploy them. We even have the technology today to recharge your car wirelessly while it's driving.

With wireless induction charging, you won't have to stop driving until it's time to rotate your tires or use the restroom.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/green-tech/advanced-cars/...

[ Parent | on HN ]