Those things are all possible--but unlikely, in my experience. I've worked for the government and for government contractors. I did not ever come across even one single self-proclaimed conservative or libertarian individual who fell into any of the "maybe" hypotheses you describe. To a person there is one word to describe them: hypocrite. They did exactly what the parent wrote: railed against government while earning a decent (in some cases extremely nice) living that is 100% the result of government activity.

He doesn't seem to be the railing type.

In the Bitcoin conversations, it seemed he wasn't interested in talking about much outside the code. Even though Bitcoin was created for X reasons, the discussions were about code. Then he disappeared. Bitcoin has since exploded and he still hasn't come out.

From the description of the guy, it seems to wouldn't be self proclaimed anything except in passing down advice to his children.

Who knows if these are even his actual views. I doubt we will be seeing any interviews. Just short comments from family who apparently aren't close to him. This includes his brother who thinks he is an asshole.

I've been in exactly his position, and formed much of my libertarian-style beliefs in direct response to what I saw working within the government.

Having seen it happen anecdotally in literally dozens of cases, I don't think it's that unlikely.

Did you continue working for the government after forming said beliefs? If so, then I suggest that either your beliefs aren't that strong, or else you're a hypocrite. In either case, "unlikely" is not "impossible."

Watching the inner workings of a three letter agency in action formed beliefs that caused me to seek employment elsewhere. That said, going elsewhere required some degree of financial sacrifice, and I don't fault others for not necessarily being willing to go as far as I did with stable, good-paying jobs as dear and precious as they are.

We should also consider that its improbable if not impossible that he has not since been visited by contacts from the Government. They knew exactly where he was. So any change of mind he has had since the explosion of Bitcoin should take that into account.