Re:Secretary Problem
by thaumasiotes on Tuesday March 04, 2014 @03:14AM
(#7339062)
> Quite interesting that discarding the first n/e candidates produces a 1/e probability of choosing the optimal one...
Freeform thoughts from here:
1/e is the probability of failing (every time) if you try a 1/n chance n times, where n is large.
To get the optimal choice, there are two (generously defined) requirements:
- #1 does not occur in the discarded group
- #1 occurs before everyone else who was not discarded, but exceeds the maximum of the discarded group
The second one seems hairy to me, so I'll wrap things up here. ;p
> As for real-world applications, the only one that comes readily to mind is rolling up a D&D character
This was introduced to me as a marriage problem, and wikipedia also notes it by that name. The analogy never seemed inaccurate to me; it's frowned upon to evaluate candidates simultaneously and rare to accept someone other than the latest candidate.
Freeform thoughts from here:
1/e is the probability of failing (every time) if you try a 1/n chance n times, where n is large.
To get the optimal choice, there are two (generously defined) requirements:
- #1 does not occur in the discarded group
- #1 occurs before everyone else who was not discarded, but exceeds the maximum of the discarded group
The second one seems hairy to me, so I'll wrap things up here. ;p
> As for real-world applications, the only one that comes readily to mind is rolling up a D&D character
This was introduced to me as a marriage problem, and wikipedia also notes it by that name. The analogy never seemed inaccurate to me; it's frowned upon to evaluate candidates simultaneously and rare to accept someone other than the latest candidate.