Linux will continue to steadily grow among home users if Windows 7 doesn't provide better security than Vista. People do get tired of reformatting their (or their relatives') machines every 4-6 months to get rid of all the sticky malware that managed to get past their antivirus, even though said antivirus has been eating large chunks of their memory and CPU time.
Vista doesn't have nearly the security problems of the XP and before systems. Things like not running as root and integrity levels changed the security landscape. In addition, I believe that in between XP and Vista they rewrote much of the internal code to be more secure.
Re:Microsoft’s Long, Slow Decline
by nazgulnarsil on Friday July 31, 2009 @08:29AM
(#734243)
you're right that it is a huge chance for them. going by history I see no indication that they won't completely blow this chance while declaring victory. microsoft has become myopic.
I'm not sure Linux will ever pose a serious threat to the "home-user" market - even developers I know tend to agree that Linux has never taken user-interaction seriously. It might be prettier these days but that isn't the concern, it's genuine "getting things working" and "using this day by day" that is the problem. Most Linux users live by the terminal but home users moved to the GUI a long time ago and aren't going back.