I wish this claim wouldn't come up in every Perl article because that's a big part of Perl's perception problem. P6 is entering its 15th year of advocates claiming that it'll be ready in "about a year and a half".
If that claim is true this time, then it puts off people doing interesting things with Perl now as they figure they'll wait for a successor to look at it.
If that claim isn't true, then it puts off people doing interesting things with Perl now as the claim will change to be "about a year and a half from now" in another 18 months.
I'm of the opinion the only way to solve the chicken and egg usage problem is to convince a few people to be chickens. That's not going to happen without them trying it out. (I'm aware you've thought quite a bit on this issue).
Bulk of the effort is in developing MoarVM, which is likely to become a suitable replacement for Parrot. Documentation, Speed and standard libraries remain as open issues. Of which last I heard was Larry Wall was writing a Camel book equivalent for Perl 6. So its mainly speed and standard libraries.
I would give end of next year, by the time its ready for prime time.