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Re:The Official Forecast of the U.S. Government Never Saw Th... by rayiner on Thursday February 20, 2014 @09:39AM (#7270923)
That predicting behavior at larger scales is easier than predicting it at small scales is a principle you'll encounter repeatedly in the physical science and engineering disciplines. In the physical sciences, models are often top-down, as opposed to in computing where they are almost always bottom-up. In fluid dynamics, for example, the behavior air in a turbulent flow is chaotic at the small scale. Yet, we can still design airplane wings because we have pretty good approximate models for how such flows behave at larger scales. Or to use a physics example: it's easy to predict where a baseball will land, but very complicated to predict where an electron will be in a molecule.
Re:The Official Forecast of the U.S. Government Never Saw Th... by scott_s on Thursday February 20, 2014 @10:08AM (#7271071)
The analogy I like to think of is a ping-pong ball in the ocean. At any given second, its location will be hard to predict, as at the second-granularity, its location will be dominated by local phenomenon. But, over the course of months and years, we can often accurately predict where it will generally end up in the world due to ocean currents.