If in this "what if" scenario we assume the 2014 freshman Zuckerberg has the same drive as the 2004 one, then I would say that the odds of him becoming decently successful (whatever that might mean) would be pretty high.

If you look back at his history, he had a string of very college-student-useful projects before Facebook. He knew he was onto something. Assuming that he would have the same kind of curiosity/initiative/wtv in 2014, chances are he would find new problems to solve.