Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Human Decision-Making Using Wiener Diffusion http://gandalf.psych.umn.edu/users/schrater/schrater_lab/cou...
Decision Theory and Human Behavior http://www.umass.edu/preferen/Class%20Material/Bounds%20of%2...
Beyond Accuracy: How Models of Decision Making Compare to Human Decision Making http://fileadmin.cs.lth.se/cs/Personal/Carl_Christian_Rolf/c...
Forgetful Bayes and myopic planning: Human learning and decision-making in a bandit setting http://papers.nips.cc/paper/5180-forgetful-bayes-and-myopic-...
>Our result shows that subjects’ choices, on a trial-to- trial basis, are best captured by a “forgetful” Bayesian iterative learning model [21] in combination with a partially myopic decision policy known as Knowledge Gradient [7].
The most glaring thing: your three argumentative points could be simultaneously true and the assertion "Probabilistic AI can't be AI" could still be false.
But, I also "am not an AI/ML anything", I just read a lot on the subject and think about it a lot.
edit: so you think human intelligence is mainly a probability machine?