Re:Google’s Ray Kurzweil predicts how the world will change
by JamesArgo on Monday January 13, 2014 @10:22AM
(#7051023)
You may find this interesting: http://lesswrong.com/lw/diz/kurzweils_predictions_good_accur...
Re:Google’s Ray Kurzweil predicts how the world will change
by mixedbit on Monday January 13, 2014 @10:18AM
(#7050997)
Predicting when the next crash will be is also easy. Once you have hundreds of "experts" doing it, someone will certainly guess correctly.
Re:Google’s Ray Kurzweil predicts how the world will change
by 300bps on Monday January 13, 2014 @10:20AM
(#7051006)
Here's a list of some of his predictions for 2009 along with commentary on whether they came true or not:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/03/20/ray-kurzwei...
Re:Google’s Ray Kurzweil predicts how the world will change
by pessimizer on Monday January 13, 2014 @11:44AM
(#7051636)
>Predicting when the next crash might be is much much harder.
Predicting when is just a stunt. Predicting why is more important. Predicting why can end up giving you when if the event is contingent on a few things falling into place that are being observed falling into place.
Re:Google’s Ray Kurzweil predicts how the world will change
by joosters on Monday January 13, 2014 @04:28PM
(#7053493)
Rubbish, imo. We can't agree on the why of past crashes, let alone make good predictions about future ones. How can such a prediction ever be proved right or wrong?
Re:Google’s Ray Kurzweil predicts how the world will change
by kamaal on Monday January 13, 2014 @10:13PM
(#7055143)
>>Highlighting the ones that came true is of no use if they made 1000s of other predictions that turned out to be rubbish.
Well that's the whole point in 'predictions'. They are supposed to be a large number of them which have to come false. Predictions are a way of extrapolating the future based on current trends. They are bound to be wrong. And they are also bound to be true.
Anything else and we would be asking oracles gazing in crystal balls to narrate us the future.
Also, beware of all the predictions that don't have good timelines. Predicting a stock market crash is easy; there's bound to be one at some point or other. Predicting when the next crash might be is much much harder.