Re:Google Shuts Down Schemer
by gwern on Sunday January 12, 2014 @09:38PM
(#7048548)
You're right that it's not that great, although it might be more or less impressive depending on how much one expects these things to be predictable at all.
But one useful way to look at it is to see this as indicating how good the base rate predictor is compared to random commenters or your gut feel - 65%? Did you know, in advance, before I spent like 3 months collecting the data, that the right rate was 65% rather than, say, 10% or 90% or 50%?
But one useful way to look at it is to see this as indicating how good the base rate predictor is compared to random commenters or your gut feel - 65%? Did you know, in advance, before I spent like 3 months collecting the data, that the right rate was 65% rather than, say, 10% or 90% or 50%?