Re:China surpasses US as world's largest trading nation
by 11thEarlOfMar on Saturday January 11, 2014 @02:04PM
(#7043371)
Even if we discount the accuracy of the published numbers, are the trends correct? What I'd want to understand is: Is China's economic activity growing faster than their population?
Wouldn't that indicate rising wages and improving standard of living? Perhaps we'd need to adjust for inflation, but the trade they report is largely with countries where the published inflation rates are more trusted. And I think the experience of US manufacturers, who report rising costs in Chinese manufacturing,
Another consideration, and different topic entirely that I think will play into the trends over the next decade, is what is the ecological cost of this growth, regardless of whether it is 5, 10 or 15%.
What I expect over the next 10 years, is a slowing and reversal of 'going to China' for contract manufacturing. That reversal will be accelerated by increasing reports of this same manufacturing decimating China's ecology, and the pollutants seeping across international borders.
Wouldn't that indicate rising wages and improving standard of living? Perhaps we'd need to adjust for inflation, but the trade they report is largely with countries where the published inflation rates are more trusted. And I think the experience of US manufacturers, who report rising costs in Chinese manufacturing,
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732476700... ,
bears that out.
Another consideration, and different topic entirely that I think will play into the trends over the next decade, is what is the ecological cost of this growth, regardless of whether it is 5, 10 or 15%.
What I expect over the next 10 years, is a slowing and reversal of 'going to China' for contract manufacturing. That reversal will be accelerated by increasing reports of this same manufacturing decimating China's ecology, and the pollutants seeping across international borders.