Unless of course the support provided by a (Western) outsider had caused other tensions (warlords uniting or what have you), thus increasing the body count, which is one possible outcome out of many.

Genocide tipping in exactly the opposite direction is another (obviously unintended) possibility. Oh yeah... The rest of the wiki you link talks about that... Oops!

You can't predict a future that didn't happen. (Again unless you're The Doctor).