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Re:Why I want Bitcoin to die in a fire by AndrewBissell on Wednesday December 18, 2013 @05:09PM (#6931207)
> ... and no automated procedure for fighting deflation by printing money.

Depending on how you measure it, the share of credit which comprises the USD money supply dwarfs the amount of actual cash by something like 100:1. The cause of the deflation in the 2008 crisis was a sharp contraction in the amount of that credit, and the crisis only ended when that contraction stopped, not because of the Fed's relatively much less significant cash injections.

The sorts of sharp, catastrophic deflations that took hold in 2008 (or 1929 for that matter) are always caused by the bursting of a preceding credit bubble, usually created by central bank policy. I don't see how that kind of bubble can happen in Bitcoin. So the argument that "Bitcoin is deflationary" is true as far as it goes, but that doesn't mean that a Bitcoin-based economy would necessarily look exactly like, say, the Depression-era U.S. They're two very different kinds of deflation.

In the absence of major inflows & outflows of credit, the addition of liquidity to a market usually reduces the severity and frequency of big price swings. The very difficulty of issuing credit in BTC may very well prevent it from becoming a viable currency, but I think it's also an important brake on speculation.

Re:Why I want Bitcoin to die in a fire by SeanLuke on Wednesday December 18, 2013 @06:13PM (#6931608)
> The sorts of sharp, catastrophic deflations that took hold in 2008 (or 1929 for that matter) are always caused by the bursting of a preceding credit bubble, usually created by central bank policy. I don't see how that kind of bubble can happen in Bitcoin. So the argument that "Bitcoin is deflationary" is true as far as it goes, but that doesn't mean that a Bitcoin-based economy would necessarily look exactly like, say, the Depression-era U.S.

Bitcoin has already had catastrophic deflations: factors of two in less than a week and factors of three in less than a month. And equally spectacular speculative crashes. The reason for this is really very simple: there's no one at the tiller, printing money to tamp down the speculation.

The kind of deflation I'm talking about -- and I think everyone on HN is talking about -- is the kind associated with speculation. If Bitcoin can't discourage speculation, and it appears by design it cannot, it is dead in the water.

Re:Why I want Bitcoin to die in a fire by kalleboo on Wednesday December 18, 2013 @11:42PM (#6932925)
> The reason for this is really very simple: there's no one at the tiller, printing money to tamp down the speculation

So who's printing gold to temp down the speculation in that? Or what makes gold different so that it doesn't need a "central bank"?

Re:Why I want Bitcoin to die in a fire by eli_gottlieb on Thursday December 19, 2013 @07:34AM (#6934254)
Gold isn't different. Bitcoin is actually behaving a whole lot like gold.

But, here's the thing: few people have ever suggested that we actually do our regular, day-to-day finances in market-value bullion gold. Instead, it's just considered a good way to back or hedge against actual, managed currencies.

Bitcoin stands a chance, IMHO, if people get off their ridiculous Austrian Economics shtick and start treating it similarly to gold: Bitcoins as hedge against financial shenanigans in other currencies rather than Bitcoins as a way of paying your bar tab.