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A comment on Chance of nuclear war is greater than you think.
Hellman estimated these numbers:
Rate of initiating events: six percent per year
Probability that an initiating event leads to a major crisis: 33 percent
Probability that a major crisis leads to the use of a nuclear weapon: 10 to 50 percent
The third probability is hardest to estimate because we have yet to drop a bomb on Russia (or vice versa)."
Very impressive calculations
Obligatory xkcd: http://xkcd.com/384/
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Hellman estimated these numbers:
Rate of initiating events: six percent per year
Probability that an initiating event leads to a major crisis: 33 percent
Probability that a major crisis leads to the use of a nuclear weapon: 10 to 50 percent
The third probability is hardest to estimate because we have yet to drop a bomb on Russia (or vice versa)."
Very impressive calculations
Obligatory xkcd: http://xkcd.com/384/