Why are software development estimates regularly off by a factor of 2-3?

Re:Why are software development estimates regularly off by a... by coldtea on Friday November 29, 2013 @08:37PM (#6821887)

>So the article tries to describe the hidden complexity of software with a hiking analogy but then it leaves a huge part missing. Let's extend the analogy somewhat... this isn't your first hiking trip. In fact, you've been on dozens and dozens of hiking trips. You're an experienced hiker. Yet, why do you continue to give meaningless as-the-crow-flies estimates of how long it will take you to get to your destination? The reason is that if you miss your estimate, it probably won't matter.

Nice try, but no.

Developers who are DIRECTLY affected from missing estimates (e.g one man shops paying out of their own pockets, people building an app while having quit work, eating ramen and maxing their credit cards etc, developers in companies who will personally pay for any delays by attrocious, unpaid overtime crunch marches, etc) underestimate the time needed to get something done just the same. Just ask Allan Odgaard (of TextMate 2 infamy).

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Re:Why are software development estimates regularly off by a... by nnq on Saturday November 30, 2013 @02:54AM (#6822597)

100% agree on that. I did a lot of bad estimates and was directly affected by them (fixed rate projects that ended up driving my rate to "below mcdonalds worker" and some even with "lateness discounts" because I just wanted to keep the customer happy), and it took me a lot of time to get better at estimating even if I was paying from my own pocket for all the bad estimates.

Now if I am to hire a developer I will never think that "his estimates are bad because he's not directly affected by missing them"!

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