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Re:Why are software development estimates regularly off by a... by wpietri on Friday November 29, 2013 @03:30PM (#6820902)
99% of what some people do is derivative. But if what they're doing is software, that's expressive duplication, and it's worth trying to DRY it up.

I think we have different intuitions here because it sounds like you're more in a service business than specifically writing software. I agree that a lot of any service business is standardizable, because it's mainly about people and their needs; that has a lot of regularity.

But I don't think the software creation part of a service business is standardizable over the long term. During the first wave of "put smallish businesses on the internet" each web site was custom, hand-rolled software. Early on those schedules were unpredictable, but for a while, it became a known, predictable business.

That business has, in the long term, been basically destroyed. People spotted the regularities and developed common code and tools. What was mainly a problem of software development became a (much smaller) problem of installation and configuration. The competitive advantage for those people now lies not in coding ability, but in customer service and in helping people manage the essential complexity of the domain.

Re:Why are software development estimates regularly off by a... by mattmanser on Friday November 29, 2013 @04:02PM (#6821008)
I think you're wrong.

Perhaps you weren't around in the early 2000s when the RAD tools were all the rage.

Perhaps you missed out on the colossal frameworks of the late 2000s when everything was a factory and understanding HTTP was actually a disadvantage as the whole thing would blow up if you actually tried to access the request body.

We went down the road you talk of. It was horrible. Now the pendulum swings to the opposite ends, the light-weight APIs which don't try and abstract away all the details which it turns out mattered a lot as everyone has to do pretty much the same thing, but ever-so-slightly differently. Tiny tools that do one job well.

All you are talking about is writing HTML and doing server config, neither of which are software or programming. When someone in 2000 came to you and said 'I need a website, therefore I need a software programmer to write html and setup a server' they no more needed a programmer back than then they needed one today. Just back then it was developers who knew the markup language and how to configure servers and they weren't about to turn away silly money just because there was not much actual coding involved.

Re:Why are software development estimates regularly off by a... by wpietri on Friday November 29, 2013 @08:01PM (#6821760)
I was in fact around in the early 2000s. And the early 90s. The pendulum swings some, but back in the early days of the web, everything dynamic was hand-rolled, just like I describe.