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Re:Tell HN: Risk, Dan Gardner by pasbesoin on Thursday June 25, 2009 @01:34PM (#674079)
One thing I've heard mentioned occasionally but still have not seen covered extensively/comprehensively in the mainstream media, is the shifting of risk in the U.S. in the last, say, 30 years, from institutions to individuals. For example, the movement from professionally managed pensions to individually managed (and often choice-limited) 401k plans as a main vehicle for retirement savings.

I don't know whether the book addresses those aspects of risk, or whether it shares my viewpoint on them, but I welcome the review and the attention the post may place on risk as a topic. The conversation here could become quite interesting.

Re:Tell HN: Risk, Dan Gardner by kmg on Thursday June 25, 2009 @02:59PM (#674211)
I think Barry Schwartz talks about something similar with the shift of choices from the professionals to the public in health care in this TED talk - http://www.ted.com/talks/barry_schwartz_on_the_paradox_of_ch... and probably more so in his book which I am yet to read.
Re:Tell HN: Risk, Dan Gardner by anamax on Thursday June 25, 2009 @07:40PM (#674641)
> For example, the movement from professionally managed pensions to individually managed (and often choice-limited) 401k plans as a main vehicle for retirement savings.

We've found that the risk of professionally managed pensions is actually borne by taxpayers, not "institutions".

Re:Tell HN: Risk, Dan Gardner by pasbesoin on Friday June 26, 2009 @09:59AM (#675422)
Yes, I thought of that as I wrote my comment. However, I see it as a somewhat separate problem. The pension funds were, essentially, raided. If that were prevented (that dreaded word, regulation), we might still be in a situation where pensions provide a very stable retirement income. Further, preventing such behavior would force the pension providers to own up to and correct their problems sooner, instead of milking retirement earnings as a short term compensation for those problems. Those that couldn't correct their problems would fail. But the pensions would remain intact.

I think what is currently happening with many pensions in the U.S. -- e.g. underfunding followed by default of one manner or another that transfers the pension obligations to the increasingly underfunded Federal government insurance/guarantor program that pays a small portion of their original value -- is criminal, ethically where not (explicitly enough, apparently) legally. But it does not of itself discredit the concept of pensions.

At the same time, I'm no expert in this. I'm open to considering opposing arguments. Let me put part of my point another way: Expecting every future retiree to become an investment expert is inefficient. All that time and effort duplicated across so many people, to manage in each individual case relatively small amounts (excluding that small percentage of the very wealthy).

But maybe it's like democracy; all that work by individuals is necessary to keep the system honest. And when the work isn't done, the system degrades. Perhaps the best we can do is to all hire investment advisors (whom we choose) and to treat no investment, no benefit as "guaranteed".

But, with regard to the topic of risk, this is a lot of individual risk.

Re:Tell HN: Risk, Dan Gardner by anamax on Friday June 26, 2009 @02:56PM (#675887)
> The pension funds were, essentially, raided.

Not at all. They were unsatisfiable promises.

> If that were prevented (that dreaded word, regulation)

I'll believe in regulation when public employee pensions are less of a disaster than private ones.

> But it does not of itself discredit the concept of pensions.

In theory there's no difference between theory and practice....

> But, with regard to the topic of risk, this is a lot of individual risk.

You can't eliminate risk. You can merely move it around.