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Re:You are not a software engineer (2011) by trimbo on Sunday November 10, 2013 @08:38PM (#6709453)
> As far as I can see, commercial software isn't limited by "major unknowns"

I'm sorry, I needed to get in an afternoon run and actually deleted a paragraph that explained this a little more that I couldn't get just right before posting.

I completely agree with you. There aren't a lot of technical unknowns for most things people are trying to do.

Thing is, I wasn't actually talking about technical challenges with that point, rather, the requirements that are given at the beginning of a project. The requirements for the new Bay Bridge, for example, are pretty darn clear: make a new bridge from Oakland to Yerba Buena Island.

The requirements for making G+ attract Facebook users... errr... uhh...

Or how about the requirements for the next Call of Duty to be fun...

A great many of today's software projects -- especially those discussed here on HN -- aren't straight up engineering problems, they're more design and UX problems. Even for something like the software for the Joint Strike Fighter, you're more into UX than hard-hittin' avionics for a lot of it these days.

And I think that's what makes it hard to predict software development schedules. If we were all building ATM software again and again, we'd be knocking it out of the park. A competitor to Snapchat that is able to sway users over... that might be harder to define up front.

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