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A comment on Coding Horror: Monty Hall, Monty Fall, Monty Crawl.

Re:Coding Horror: Monty Hall, Monty Fall, Monty Crawl by TweedHeads on Monday June 22, 2009 @02:24PM (#669205)
Monty Crawl: if you pick the 1st door and the host opens the 3rd door, you have 100% chance to win if you switch.
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Re:Coding Horror: Monty Hall, Monty Fall, Monty Crawl by georgeweinberg on Monday June 22, 2009 @04:42PM (#669410)
Yes. But if picks the second door, it no longer matters whether you switch or not.

Your final probability in Monty Crawl is still only winning 2/3, because you can't do better than an always switch strategy, and you will pick the winning door initially 1/3 of the time.

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