Re:Tesla: Third Model S fire in past two months
by whyenot on Thursday November 07, 2013 @02:00PM
(#6691589)
Let's do a "back of the envelope" calculation:
Between 2006 and 2010 there were on average 152,300 automobile fires per year [1] so a reasonable estimate for 2 months would be 25,383. There are approximately 19,000 Tesla Model S sedans on the road [2]. If we assume most of those vehicles are in the US, then the Tesla model S represents 0.007469% of the 254.4 million passenger vehicles in the US [3]. One would expect 1.8 Tesla Model S fires in a 2 month period if the chances of a fire are no different for the Model S than other vehicles. But, this calculation doesn't take into account several other mitigating factors, for example if fires are more common in older cars than new cars.
Between 2006 and 2010 there were on average 152,300 automobile fires per year [1] so a reasonable estimate for 2 months would be 25,383. There are approximately 19,000 Tesla Model S sedans on the road [2]. If we assume most of those vehicles are in the US, then the Tesla model S represents 0.007469% of the 254.4 million passenger vehicles in the US [3]. One would expect 1.8 Tesla Model S fires in a 2 month period if the chances of a fire are no different for the Model S than other vehicles. But, this calculation doesn't take into account several other mitigating factors, for example if fires are more common in older cars than new cars.
[1] http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicle...
[2] http://www.engadget.com/2013/11/05/tesla-q3-2013-earnings/
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_Unite...