Makes sense. Knowing those reasons you don't think it will work and attacking those specifically is actually a really good way to debug. Dave Friedberg (Founder of Climate Corporation) actually has a really good approach to this that he talks about here (3 minute video): http://ecorner.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=2796

He basically says to lay out the unknowns, and systematically work towards making them knowns. Good luck!