Model S Fire - Hackdot

Re:Model S Fire by Natsu on Saturday October 05, 2013 @02:05AM (#6499632)

I do not understand your comment. This is the risk, as observed, measured with respect to a single person driving heavily. In other words, most people should expect less risk than this. You are correct that a larger population should expect more risk: there have certainly been more accidents than this overall, and a battery fire is not the only thing to worry about.

But risks must be compared to the relevant alternatives. Certainly, those who arrange their life such that they do not drive at all are removing a significant risk, as I can personally attest to having encountered several drivers who were, frankly, suicidal. I speak specifically of the person who pulled into a turning lane to pass (when I was already in it, stopped), and gunned it driving straight at me. By no means should you think that I am diminishing the very real risk we engage in every day while driving.

But most people measure risk by how easily they can imagine a scenario. As such, I offer this for you to contrast with the photos in the article: https://www.google.com/search?q=burnt+out+car&tbm=isch Such things are not uncommon and I have, personally, witnessed such. While measuring risk according to one's memory is a useful cognitive shortcut in many situations, but with the way our news sensationalizes things by highlighting unusual events and under-reporting common ones, it is not a useful metric.

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Re:Model S Fire by kayoone on Saturday October 05, 2013 @10:03AM (#6500679)

You cant just compare fires in petrol cars driven 3 trillion miles a year with fires in tesla cars driven 100 million miles a year, its just not very representative. You can either take for example BMW and look up how many fires they had for a new 5 series in 100M miles driven and or let Tesla owners drive 3 trillion miles and see how numbers compare.

Just like Elon did it, it sounds nice but doesnt make a lot of sense.

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Re:Model S Fire by Natsu on Saturday October 05, 2013 @01:05PM (#6501252)

You are correct that we have a higher confidence in the fire rate for gasoline cars. You are not correct in implying that we have little idea of the rate of fires in Tesla cars. We don't have '1 event' worth of data, we have '100 million miles' worth of data. That aside, yes, we should update our estimates based on future data as it is virtually certain that the numbers will fluctuate. Actually, they already have, based on there being more miles driven and no new reported fires. But few people remember to update their confidence based on a lack of events.

Note that there have been a lot of fires in those 3 trillion miles driven by ordinary cars (not just 1), as even a quick search shows: https://www.google.com/search?q=burnt+out+car&tbm=isch

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Re:Model S Fire by kayoone on Saturday October 05, 2013 @03:02PM (#6501642)

Yes and that includes all brands, used cars, old cars etc. Like i said, compare that with similar new cars like the new 5 Series or Benz E Series and i would guess numbers would be much closer.

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Re:Model S Fire by Natsu on Monday October 07, 2013 @09:56PM (#6512543)

If you have that data, feel free to share it so that we can compare the risk. I do not feel particularly threatened by a 'once in 4,000 years of heavy driving' type of event on a personal level, though if there were any evidence of systemic risk, I might be more concerned, though I do not own a Tesla. I also assume that there is some non-zero risk of a more catastrophic accident, which will then cause further hand-wringing, but I expect it to occur in a crash that was unlikely to be survivable or for it to involve someone doing something completely moronic. Or quite possibly both things at once and then some.

On an individual level, I am far more worried about identifying and avoiding the disturbingly large number of idiotically suicidal drivers I have met. And I mean that very seriously: as soon as I identify someone driving erratically, I find some way to get away from them, whether it means forcing them to pass me, taking an unplanned exit, or what have you, I will make sure I put distance between us.

But I remain unconcerned about a single report of a small car fire when there are many worse ones every single year (if not every day...)

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