Lose.

"Paul Graham... argues that... web startups themselves are commodifying."

Uh, no. He says they are hugely increasing in number. In fact, I think if anything that will increase the gap between the best and the worst of them. They are becoming even less of a commodity than previously, which was not at all.

The thing keeping them from becoming a true commodity is an effective aggregation service. (Not yahoo pipes, which is just for rss feeds)