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Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by unono on Tuesday September 03, 2013 @08:24PM (#6324796)
On the contrary, I think we're now in 'the age of the great underestimation'.
Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by staccatomeasure on Tuesday September 03, 2013 @11:25PM (#6325356)
Based on what? The only example we have of human intelligence is human intelligence, and we're still more or less at thinking-this-makes-neurons-here-light-up knowledge of how it all works.
Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by unono on Tuesday September 03, 2013 @11:53PM (#6325429)
The latest moto X has always listening chip inside. That's pretty significant. There's robocars, ibm watson, siri/gnow. The CEO of the quantum computer recently said that machine learning is progressing faster than people think, having seen some of the secret internal stuff brewing up at big G. Microsoft is developing improved versions of the kinect internally as chips.

Who cares if we don't know how the brain works in detail, we still haven't built bird-like machines that flap, but we do have machines that soar through the sky faster and higher than birds. Same is happening with AI.

Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by staccatomeasure on Wednesday September 04, 2013 @02:20AM (#6325935)
Are we making great, amazing advances in pattern recognition, mechanical systems that very cleverly incorporate sensor feedback, and other novel areas? Sure. Are we making super-impressive progress in general intelligence. No.

There's two main fields of thought - one that "general intelligence" is some unified, centralized system, maybe a "symbolic system"; another that "general intelligence" is merely the composition of a bunch of pieces that do certain stuff.

So maybe our advancement in the things you mentioned are making strides towards the latter. I think that's wrong, but it's possible. Even if it is the case, we're still not making strides in the pieces of that composed intelligence that answer questions like - what's bigger, a shoebox or a mountain?

In regards to your bird analogy: we don't have very popular bird machines, but we do know the principles that enable birds to fly. Similarly, we don't need to build brains, but anything we build that is comparably "intelligent" as a brain would be quite surprising if it didn't come from insight we have into the principles that enable general intelligence.

Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by unono on Wednesday September 04, 2013 @10:28AM (#6327775)
'General intelligence' is wacko amateur thinking that reasonable people in AI don't believe in. You're shooting yourself in the foot mentioning that.

The consensus amongst competent people in AI is that of building practical systems.

Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by staccatomeasure on Wednesday September 04, 2013 @12:44PM (#6328740)
I'll be candid with my sources - I took a class with Patrick Winston called The Human Intelligence Enterprise where we went over a history of AI ideas. Nowhere in that class did I get the impression that 'general intelligence' is 'wacko amateur thinking'. Maybe the former director of the MIT AI lab just failed to impress upon us the disdain for general intelligence you say is commonplace.

http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electrical-engineering-and-comput...

Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by unono on Wednesday September 04, 2013 @02:24PM (#6329395)
Patrick Winston is a disciple of Marvin Minsky. They're considered wackos these days.
Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by staccatomeasure on Wednesday September 04, 2013 @05:50PM (#6330758)
Who would you consider the leading authority?
Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by unono on Wednesday September 04, 2013 @09:59PM (#6331756)
The machine learning/statistics crowd. Some names - Judea Pearl, Tom Mitchell, Pete Norvig, Andrew Ng, Geoff Hinton, John Langford, Jeff Dean. Of course there's many more than that, but these have gained some fame through textbooks/open sources/popular press etc. More generally the approaches taken by Google, like vector space models that power search engines. If Google's doing it it's likely not wacko because they have a low tolerance for tomfoolery down there.
Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by staccatomeasure on Wednesday September 04, 2013 @11:04PM (#6331948)
OK, now cite where they think general intelligence is tomfoolery.
Re:Who Will Prosper in the New World by unono on Thursday September 05, 2013 @12:45AM (#6332237)
They won't, out of politeness and not wanting to make enemies. I will, as an anonymous coward on the internet.