I do wonder about the author's offhand assertion that Google are the "odds-on favorite" to win the auction. Does anyone know if there's any evidence to back this up? Last I checked, Google were only willing to conditionally meet the opening auction price if their conditions were met, let alone whatever they'd need to pay to win the auction.
I have read of at least one analyst who believes that the Telcos are more likely to win the auction than Google. Possibly out right by a single carrier or through collusion between multiple. As much cash as Google has, It could be difficult for them to justify spending >$10B on a wireless spectrum when they are still perceived as an internet search company. Investors may not be very happy about that. For the Telcos, this is their core business and the expense is highly justified. While this is all speculation at this point, the consensus so far does not paint a very pretty picture for open access unfortunately. We will just have to wait a few more months and see how things play out.