You're making it seem inevitable that valuable people will be held back in stale roles. Things don't have to be this way, although I have heard of places where they are.
In other firms, new tasks come along and they need good people to lead them. People who have developed a smaller system that is now in maintenance mode are a perfect candidate. And that is how you advance.
Do we live in the same world?
I've never seen a manager promote anyone based on performance, this is even irrational (if it's doing a good job with the current salary, leave at it). If you're too valuable to a company, chances are your manager is looking at ways to not be dependent on you rather than luring you in staying with a promotion.
The only time I see employees promoted, it's for political reasons (e.g., a manager promoting someone he can control between himself and some employee he can't deal with).