Re:Detroit files for Chapter 9 bankruptcy amid staggering de...
by rayiner on Thursday July 18, 2013 @10:00PM
(#6067878)
You're right, the feedback loop isn't as strong. Basically, I'm hoping the bankruptcy can spur political change. Ideally, after a couple of years of being run by a bankruptcy judge, and residents feeling the sting of things being cut, new blood comes into city management and takes advantage of the stabilized financial position to put the city on a course for the future. I think even if the bankruptcy process can't bind the city government in the future, it does change the political climate. I think it will weaken the public unions, and I think the end of easy money through bond issuances will force greater fiscal discipline.
This might be overly optimistic.
Re:Detroit files for Chapter 9 bankruptcy amid staggering de...
by penguindev on Thursday July 18, 2013 @09:49PM
(#6067842)
There's really no feedback loop against doing anything stupid with the current monetary system; quite the opposite - becoming insolvent is apparently subsidized by the federal reserve apparatchiks. The banks cant lose no matter what, so you can't expect very much rational economic activity to occur.
Now rewrite your post in the context of the federal government's promises. (Total unfunded liabilities).
>Doesn't look too encouraging for anybody
Indeed, save perhaps private security guards.
I don't see the feedback loop. In normal bankruptcies, or any other mistake in management, there's a feedback loop to help self-correct and prevent this from happening again. So politicians made a lot of promises they couldn't keep, got in bed with the folks running the city and created all sorts of sweetheart deals, made lots of speeches about making the city a better place and so forth while running it into the ground.
The lawyers come in, nullify the promises made to many of the participants, including bond holders and dedicated employees, all of whom acted in good faith. The politicians walk away. Heck, some of them are probably busy right now continuing to move up the political ladder.
So where's the feedback loop? The fact that bondholders will be more careful next time around? That's all I can see, and it's a very flimsy thing to hang that much optimism from. My bet is the state picks up the bonds, takes over managing the city budget, and gives everybody involved a 30-40% haircut. This may prevent the particular city named Detroit from repeating the same mistake for a few years, but it does absolutely nothing for all the other mismanaged cities. I'm not even sure Detroit will remain in the doghouse very long. In fact, from a certain political angle, looks like a very well-played strategy. At the end, all the players walk free and continue making speeches about how awesome Detroit is and "if they had only listened to me" things would have worked out.
Doesn't look too encouraging for anybody, but heck, maybe I missed it.