How many regular users do you know who actually edit their list of trusted CA's in their browsers? (I sure don't, though I probably should.) Who would manually remove DigiNotar immediately because they heard on the news they got hacked? No, Big Well-Designed Site is signed by Big Company, user trusts it.
On the other hand, if I give you a key that's signed by someone you trust, you can make an informed decision on whether to trust my key. It is a decision on a level where the regular user might feel they have something to say (whereas a regular user is not likely to feel they know more about security than Big Company).
Perhaps most users would have very few keys that they trust/verify. But I'd say that's a good thing, because if you haven't gotten real verification, it's just a false sense of security.
I'd be curious to hear from security specialists about S/MIME. How thoroughly studied is it? How are the libraries? I have hardly ever heard it discussed, so I'm a little hesitant at the moment.
We need no software. We need public awareness, tutorials and probably some easy to use CA.
I bet the adoption rate of S/MIME is way beyond gpg if you check corporations and large enterprises.
for example: Germany
Do you know if S/MIME can work on a distributed model?
Also, what are the advantages of S/MIME over PGP? I hear what you're saying about enterprise adoption, but I'm more concerned with the thoroughness of peer review than usage rates.
S/MIME is based on X.509, same thing that powers TLS/SSL.
Depending on the client you're using, it shouldnt be too hard to prune the trusted CA list to only include providers you choose to trust. If you want, only include your CA and remove all others.
But this would be useful in a corporation where it's possible to centrally manage CA lists for approved applications.
What I'm trying to say here is: I'm a bit of a geek, and if I don't understand how it works, there's no way e.g. my parents are. If s/mime is the solution, there's a serious education battle that needs to be fought.
I say this as someone who uses GPG (via GPG Tools on OS X) without any bother.
It's even easier to do, because you don't have to trick a CA in creating a duplicate key.
In some ways it's easier with PGP, yes.
But in some ways relying on a possibly-hostile CA is worse: if the software doesn't really give the user any visibility of key changes, then the impersonator won't even need to social-engineer the recipient with "whoops I lost my key". Instead, the duped recipient will just see "Signed by Big Trusted CA" with a shiny green padlock, and will think everything is fine, even though the key under the hood has changed.
S/MIME works everywhere (Outlook, Mail.app, iOS, Thunderbird, BlackBerry, Windows Phone, Lotus, ... ) out of the box. No plugins required.