This is how other hacked SSL certs have been caught in the wild, remember? Do you think Iran has more GMail users than the U.S.?
Even my own S/MIME private key the NSA wouldn't be able to get a hold of without actually having to take my smartcard, and I'd certainly notice that.
Either way, there's something that the NSA has actually screwed up so I'm honestly a bit surprised that people are still arguing so much about a FISA compliance API. That horse is already essentially dead and buried. So dead and buried that others are saying that tptacek is tearing down a strawman for still mentioning it...
I'm sure there are browsers out there that won't negotiate PFS DHE modes with Google (which were only enabled a year ago serverside anyway). NSA has had long-haul and undersea fibers tapped for many years.
Cert pinning won't help because it's not MITM.
But everything that is plausible is not probable.
Do we not? The only reason to think that the situation for Google and DDG is different is that DDG may be insignificant enough to ignore.
I can't speak to a slide deck; We've only seen some slides for one program (PRISM). I am quite sure that NSA has several different programs variously encompassing collection and decryption. Hopefully in the next few days or weeks we'll see details about more of them.
I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility for a nation-state adversary with a ca. $10bn annual budget (that happens to be the same country where Google lives) to get a copy of Google's key, no.