The trick is a LOT of people on twitter/etc are basically saying screw MS right now, so if that holds than playing online MP with your friends will go Sony's way. That leaves only exclusives, and beyond Halo and Killer Instinct I haven't heard of much that would sell many copies.

if the xbox one receives more bad press than it already has, some publishers of games might start to think that an exclusive with xbox one is not going to give them a large enough customer base!

I certainly hope this happens. I for one, hate platform exclusive games - it means vendor lock in, and it is anti-consumer.