Re:Are coders worth it?
by dragonwriter on Thursday June 06, 2013 @02:49PM
(#5834417)
> Even if this differential productivity remains, as tooling gets better I have to wonder how many software engineers will be needed in 20 years if all programmers become much more efficient?
Greater labor efficiency in the production of a good only decreases the quantity of labor directed to producing that good demanded in the market when there is either some non-labor (or different kind of labor) input to production of the good (e.g., in agricultural productivity, land would be the non-labor input) whose supply is limited, or quantity demanded of the output good goes past the point where cost declines are responded to 1:1 with increased quantity demanded.
Given the number of existing and potential markets for software and the relative transferrability of programmer skills and effort between those marktes, I would be surprised if the latter was true, and I don't see an obvious non-programming constraint on the production of software that would be limiting.
Greater labor efficiency in the production of a good only decreases the quantity of labor directed to producing that good demanded in the market when there is either some non-labor (or different kind of labor) input to production of the good (e.g., in agricultural productivity, land would be the non-labor input) whose supply is limited, or quantity demanded of the output good goes past the point where cost declines are responded to 1:1 with increased quantity demanded.
Given the number of existing and potential markets for software and the relative transferrability of programmer skills and effort between those marktes, I would be surprised if the latter was true, and I don't see an obvious non-programming constraint on the production of software that would be limiting.