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Re:Are coders worth it? by nostrademons on Thursday June 06, 2013 @02:46PM (#5834392)
I think it's not that software engineering has not yet gone through a true manufacturing disruption, it's that each new disruption increases the scope of problems that software can be applied to rather than reducing the skill it takes to create it.

The invention of compilers was a huge watershed moment for programming. All the manual labor you had to do, keeping track of memory layouts and registers and stack frames, was handled automatically for you. Yet the result is not that programming became easier - it's that programs became more complex. A journeyman programmer today can write Tetris in a few hours, while it took how many months for the original? But modern games are things like Starcraft 2 and Halo, not Tetris and Space Invaders.

Same with databases. It used to be that you had to think in terms of bytes in sectors on a disk. Now we have filesystems and databases and query languages to abstract that all away from us. But that doesn't mean programming the systems becomes easier, it means that the volume and variety of data stored increases.

It used to be that domains like speech recognition, natural language processing, text mining, computer vision, OCR, etc. were completely off-limits for computational approaches. Now we have standard libraries for them, and standardized tools for generating those standard libraries. But that just means the tools get applied to progressively more problems, not that solving those problems becomes easier.

I think this is what Marc Andreesen meant when he said that "Software is eating the world". There will eventually come a time when no more software engineers will be needed, when they have automated themselves out of a job. But that time will come when everything we do is computerized, when every aspect of modern life is ruled by algorithms and data. Until then, advances in technology just mean computation can be applied to more and more problem domains.

Re:Are coders worth it? by 6d0debc071 on Thursday June 06, 2013 @04:56PM (#5835122)
How many computer programmers really work on the complex problems; speech recognition, computer vision, etc; though? Even games, how many programmers are writing really top-notch engines? How's their share of the pie break down as compared to the rapid explosion of in the assets side of things?

It seems to me, and I may be wrong on this, that the complexity of the problems that most programmers are approaching doesn't scale on a 1:1 basis with the power of their tools.

Re:Are coders worth it? by jiggy2011 on Thursday June 06, 2013 @05:27PM (#5835276)
If there's one thing I have learnt , it is that you can make "simple" problems arbitrarily complex (and if you don't someone else will).

If all of our "CRUD apps" were truly just CRUD apps we would have built them all in 10 minutes with rails scaffold.

Re:Are coders worth it? by nostrademons on Thursday June 06, 2013 @05:08PM (#5835192)
There's complex technical work, and there's complex social work. The programmers who use a speech recognition API to solve a human problem - say, hands-free in-car navigation - are doing work that's every bit as difficult as building the speech recognition API in the first place. And they're often more highly compensated for it, if they succeed - it's just the risk structure of trying to match known technology to unknown problems is a lot more vague than trying to match unknown technology to known problems.
Re:Are coders worth it? by LordHumungous on Thursday June 06, 2013 @11:00PM (#5836924)
Don't underestimate the difficulty in making something not just work, but work well, and for millions of people.
Re:Are coders worth it? by lucidrains on Thursday June 06, 2013 @03:21PM (#5834593)
you have basically summed up my worldview and outlook for the future in a few paragraphs. i look forward to a time when we automate everyone out of a job, and it will be a better future for all of us. i have to admit there may be industries on the horizon that may be beyond our comprehension, but it will no doubt require a symbiosis between man/machine.

i like your name too!