Re:Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC
by mapt on Monday April 01, 2013 @12:27PM
(#5474056)
$2M and growing is significant, although it's only one of many companies. Every other day another business sets up with Bitcoin as a medium of exchange that is a low-fee, no-chargeback transactional currency. The fundamental value of such a currency, with a quasi-fixed money supply, scales as some multiple of real circulation. The momentary value is proportional to that fundamental value multiplied by short-term expectations of the BTC as an asset, which is driven by growth in usage and hype.
It's entirely possible that 99% of the value of a bitcoin is a self-reinforcing set of asset-bubble expectations, but this is something that really didn't exist before, that we don't have great paradigms to explain, that is undergoing massive daily shifts in its usage. It is explicitly not a stable national floating fiat currency with people who circulate the money their banking system provides & pay their taxes in those notes & denominate their salaries and grocery bills in sticky quantities of those notes, and so it's not directly comparable.
The US GDP is about $15 trillion, so about $1.25 trillion in transactions happen in a month. If you take M2 of about $10 trillion as the US money supply, about 12.5% of the US money supply turns over each month and 87.5% is being hoarded. If you take M1 of about $2 trillion as the money supply, about 62.5% of the US money supply is used in a transaction each month, with only 37.5% being hoarded.
Compared to 62.5% or even 12.5%, 0.2% seems pretty unhealthy.