It's just usually not used as the sole investment, but rather the safest position in portfolio...
You don't have to take my word for it. The destruction has already occurred, and is getting worse. A 5 minute effort on calculating what your dollar will purchase today versus 10 or 15 years ago, proves that. Except now your treasury paper yields almost nada because the Fed is acting to destroy your 'return' by holding rates artificially low while devaluing the dollars you use every day to do so.
Treasury paper is as dangerous as holding your money in a Cyprus bank. The next decade is going to be a fiscal disaster for the US. The bill is coming due, and not only can the US not afford to repay its debts ever, but it can't afford any real interest on its debt (4% * $20 trillion = bankrupt US Government). This isn't going to happen in decades, it's happening now, which why the Fed can't raise interest rates, can't ever sell off its holdings, can't stop buying 85%+ of all the US Government debt being issued, and can't stop buying mortgages. Worse yet, they're going to increase their purchases again this year.
It is still consensus that the bond rate + inflation risk is understood much better than any other asset I can think of. I'm talking about the financial term 'risk' here, not the colloquial one that you are using. In financial terms, you can have a loss without any risk and still be happy about the position afterwards...
Does that make sense?
It's critical in economics to separate supply & demand of goods causing increases or decreases in prices, from monetary changes. Free market forces are not the same as central bank forces.
There's about 200 years of modern economic evidence for how exactly inflation works and how central banks create it.
I'll ignore the fact that the Fed has openly admitted it has devalued the dollar by 97% since its founding. I'll also ignore the fact that Bernanke recently said it was the goal of the Fed to generate asset inflation via QE aka debasing the dollar (see real estate skyrocketing 10% again, or 22% in Phoenix (a disaster market recently), see stocks at all time highs again ala 2007).
I'll also ignore the fact that Greenspan openly admitted the Fed has the direct ability to increase or decrease inflation, and can cause bubbles or pop them. He of all people should know.
It's not an assertion, it's a fact supported by extreme amounts of data.
If you increase the monetary base and money supply by hundreds of percent over a relatively short period of time, you're going to see a substantial increase in the price of goods in the currency in question.
If you 'print' dollars to buy trillions in mortgages and remove them from the market, you're going to limit supply of housing and cause approximately $3 to $4 trillion worth of inflation in just one year (what's happening right now). Not to mention simultaneously holding down mortgage rates via the government dominated mortgage market, by holding short term and long term interest rates artificially low by buying the paper that influences that. Then when consumers sell their homes, or take home equity loans, and then spend in any manner or buy anything else or loan their money to banks - the inflation gets discharged directly into the economy. This is one simple example, there are countless.
If today you have one trillion dollars, and tomorrow the Fed prints another trillion dollars, it's obvious what happens.
So not only do I have vast empirical economic proof not only do I have historical evidence for how it all works, not only do I have obvious math theory that is as simple as addition and subtraction, but I have the Fed openly admitting the scale of the inflation it has caused.
How many proof articles would you like on the topic?
Very first sentence: "In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time."
Yeah, it's Wikipedia, but if this definition was as obviously wrong as you portray it, don't you think someone would have fixed it? Or is Wikipedia also part of the grand conspiracy to take your money?
You're communicating a classic conspiracy theory, and like most conspiracy theories, it seems so compelling because it contains the truth. If a central bank expands the money supply in excess of demand, they will create inflation--true. The Fed has management goal of producing and maintaining mild, consistent inflation--true. The value of a dollar has declined greatly since the Fed was created--true.
But like most conspiracy theories it's not the whole truth, and thus leads to an inaccurate view of the world, one in which the importance of currency is greatly overemphasized. Is money supply the only factor that causes inflation? No. Has the inflation produced by the Fed harmed the economy? No. Living standards today are far higher than they were 100 years ago. Dollars are worth a lot less, but we have a lot more of them, and wealth (which is not the same thing as currency) has increased dramatically.
There is more to economics than money.
OK, so since we're discussing inflation as an economics concept, it only makes sense as long as we keep to the economics definition of inflation. If you want to use your own definition, you're free to do so, but then the discussion leaves the mainstream economics domain, and you should be clear about that.
Definitions:
http://economics.about.com/cs/economicsglossary/g/inflation.... Inflation is an increase in the price of a basket of goods and services that is representative of the economy as a whole.
http://economics.about.com/od/helpforeconomicsstudents/f/inf... A similar definition of inflation can be found in Economics by Parkin and Bade: Inflation is an upward movement in the average level of prices. Its opposite is deflation, a downward movement in the average level of prices. The boundary between inflation and deflation is price stability.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.[1] When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services.
How is inflation measured? Using Consumer Price Index: http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
Printing dollars, for example, is inflation. The increase in prices is a result of inflation, and there are numerous effects other than prices going up.
According to whom?
It's critical in economics to separate supply & demand of goods causing increases or decreases in prices, from monetary changes. Free market forces are not the same as central bank forces.
Doesn't seem relevant.
There's about 200 years of modern economic evidence for how exactly inflation works and how central banks create it.
This would be a perfect place to cite some of that evidence.
I'll ignore the fact that the Fed has openly admitted it has devalued the dollar by 97% since its founding.
That's fine; I'm not sure what any sort of 'admission' may have to do with an argument at hand.
I'll also ignore the fact that Bernanke recently said it was the goal of the Fed to generate asset inflation via QE aka debasing the dollar (see real estate skyrocketing 10% again, or 22% in Phoenix (a disaster market recently), see stocks at all time highs again ala 2007).
No one argues that Fed can influence money supply, which can (hopefully) have effect on inflation. The relation is far from direct, however. Think of effects of other factors, for example increases in savings rate or decreases in productivity.
I'll also ignore the fact that Greenspan openly admitted the Fed has the direct ability to increase or decrease inflation, and can cause bubbles or pop them. He of all people should know.
This pesky "admission" concept again -- what does it have to do with anything? Copernicus admitted that earth did not revolve around the sun, he of all people should know.
It's not an assertion, it's a fact supported by extreme amounts of data.
And that's another assertion, so far also unsubstantiated.
If you increase the monetary base and money supply by hundreds of percent over a relatively short period of time, you're going to see a substantial increase in the price of goods in the currency in question. If you 'print' dollars to buy trillions in mortgages and remove them from the market, you're going to limit supply of housing and cause approximately $3 to $4 trillion worth of inflation in just one year (what's happening right now).
Isn't inflation measured in percent, not in trillions of $?
Not to mention simultaneously holding down mortgage rates via the government dominated mortgage market, by holding short term and long term interest rates artificially low by buying the paper that influences that. Then when consumers sell their homes, or take home equity loans, and then spend in any manner or buy anything else or loan their money to banks - the inflation gets discharged directly into the economy.
Not sure what "inflation gets discharged directly into the economy" means.
This is one simple example, there are countless. If today you have one trillion dollars, and tomorrow the Fed prints another trillion dollars, it's obvious what happens.
Actually, it's far from obvious. Unfortunately, we'll never know what would really happen, as Fed is not in the business of printing trillions of dollars. In any case, here's analysis of what would happen that somewhat goes along your apocalyptic scenario: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/deficits-and-the...
So not only do I have vast empirical economic proof not only do I have historical evidence for how it all works, not only do I have obvious math theory that is as simple as addition and subtraction, but I have the Fed openly admitting the scale of the inflation it has caused.
So far all you had were words.
How many proof articles would you like on the topic?
So far you failed to produce a single one.
You were making some interesting points, but this kind of hyperbole makes it very difficult to take you seriously.
A quick check on what dollars will buy (the true judge of the value of a currency), spanning 10, 20, 30, 50, 100 years tells you everything you need to know about the destruction your capital will suffer while yielding almost nothing to offset the devaluation. And now the Fed is working harder than ever before to abuse the global reserve FRN standard.
Now is the absolute worst time possible to buy treasuries. The era of cheap money is coming to a close with a frantic flailing about of currency devaluations, binge stimulus, bailouts, and robberies. Anybody that claims hyper cheap money lasts forever, is selling a pipedream (which may be accompanied with the words: it's different this time).