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Re:California schools' risks rise as vaccinations drop by timr on Sunday March 29, 2009 @09:36AM (#537330)
Two reasons:

First, no vaccine is 100% effective. You can be vaccinated for something, yet still get the disease if you're exposed consistently, or with a great intensity. Thus, the goal of most vaccinations is to achieve "herd immunity", wherein enough people within a population are vaccinated that the chance of any person being exposed to a case of the disease is low enough that even an imperfect vaccine can be considered 100% effective.

If herd immunity is not achieved, then even the best vaccines will fail to protect some percentage of the population. Outbreaks will occur, and vaccinated people will succumb; in particular, people with weakened immune systems, the elderly, and pregnant women are susceptible to diseases, even when vaccinated.

Second, for some diseases -- such as chickenpox and rubella -- incomplete immunization of a population actually results in worse epidemics, because the incomplete immunization of a population tends to shift the cases of the disease to older people. And for diseases like chickenpox and rubella, childhood infection is relatively innocuous, whereas infection as an adult can kill you.

This latter concern isn't merely hypothetical -- there was a recent example of the consequences of incomplete vaccination in Greece, in the early 1990s. Because the Greeks had only inconsistently vaccinated for rubella starting in the 60s, there was a huge outbreak of adult rubella infections in 1993, and as a result of that, there was an epidemic of rubella-related spontaneous abortions and birth defects (a condition known as congential rubella syndrome, which is a hideous disease that the rubella vaccine was arguably intended to prevent). Had the immunization rate for rubella been high enough to achieve herd immunity, this never would have happened.

Re:California schools' risks rise as vaccinations drop by endtime on Sunday March 29, 2009 @11:33AM (#537421)
Thanks for explaining. The first reason makes sense. The second doesn't, though. I understand that if an entire generation wasn't immunized, then that generation is susceptible when they are old (as at any age), but I don't see why, in the general case, older people would be more vulnerable.
Re:California schools' risks rise as vaccinations drop by timr on Sunday March 29, 2009 @02:24PM (#537613)
If you only immunize 50% of each generation against a virus, then you slow the transmission rate of the virus, but you also allow the number of susceptible individuals to grow over time. Eventually, the number of susceptible individuals reaches a critical threshold, and outbreaks occur.

Because this process takes years, by the time the outbreaks begin, the average age of the un-immunized population has increased. On the other hand, if nobody is immunized, most people will acquire the virus at a young age, become naturally immune (or die), and the average age of incidence will be low.

Here's a link to a slideshow that explains the concept in greater detail (I've started it at a slide that discusses the Greek rubella outbreak, but if you want the mathematical models, go back to slide 1):

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec1181/023.htm