Re:Ten predictions (2004)
by coldtea on Saturday February 16, 2013 @02:54PM
(#5232741)
>2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable.
Err, that prediction talks about something like Amazon AWS and Heroku, which very much happened. Not about hosting open source CODE.
>3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore.
Nope. Multi-threaded programming he talks about has long fallen out of favor. Multicore programming in 2013 is all about message passing, STM et al --where threads are hidden from the programmer.
>5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. This failed hard.
If you count Clojure, it didn't fail that bad. But the general trend towards functional programming and its concepts means that the prediction sort of have been proven true, despite Lisp not being the language that brought it.
>6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning.
Are you kidding me? This is all about Facebook, before there was facebook.
>7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Happened sooner.
Well, the iPhone appeared on 2007, so not that much sooner. And he is correct that the whole market exploded a little afterwards (the first iPhone wasn't even 3G, remember?).
>9. Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. No way, thanks God.
Err, that prediction talks about something like Amazon AWS and Heroku, which very much happened. Not about hosting open source CODE.
>3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore.
Nope. Multi-threaded programming he talks about has long fallen out of favor. Multicore programming in 2013 is all about message passing, STM et al --where threads are hidden from the programmer.
>5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. This failed hard.
If you count Clojure, it didn't fail that bad. But the general trend towards functional programming and its concepts means that the prediction sort of have been proven true, despite Lisp not being the language that brought it.
>6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning.
Are you kidding me? This is all about Facebook, before there was facebook.
>7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Happened sooner.
Well, the iPhone appeared on 2007, so not that much sooner. And he is correct that the whole market exploded a little afterwards (the first iPhone wasn't even 3G, remember?).
>9. Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. No way, thanks God.
Actually not that off. Especially if you include the iPad: http://photos.appleinsider.com/deutsche-120206.jpg
And even without it, Apple has 1) that exact share of profits (of all those others combined), 2) that share of the high-end (> $1000) market.
>10. In five years' time, most programmers will still be average. This makes no sense
Makes no sense? If anything it's an absolutely true tautological statement, mathematically speaking.