Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by Brushfire on Thursday March 19, 2009 @10:53AM
(#523355)
You know what is most amusing about this? I have more doubts about Facebook's long term business plans than Twitters. Twitter seems easily monetizable, and the fact that others are already doing it outside (twitpay, etc) is some validation. Facebook seems to be monetizable only through ads. Annoying, annoying ads.
Both companies have potential valuation issues, however.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by nir on Thursday March 19, 2009 @11:13AM
(#523382)
But isn't it trivial for Facebook to offer Twitter's functionality (or do they already? Not an FB user ;)) and instantly have about x30 (AFAIK) larger userbase?
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by unalone on Thursday March 19, 2009 @11:20AM
(#523399)
They don't offer exact functionality (they're not aimed at the same market), but they've got something close.
Facebook already has ads, though, and they're evolving a business plan constantly. Twitter has nothing. So they have less experience with raising money and they've got more to lose.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by swombat on Thursday March 19, 2009 @11:57AM
(#523481)
I disagree. Twitter is already testing its adverts, and masterfully so imho.
I've clicked on those ads that they have now already. And since they were interesting things, I'm likely to keep an eye on that area for the foreseeable future, to see if anything else neat crops up.
Seems like an excellent way to roll-out ads... first, make the users look at the area where you'll place the ads, by putting interesting stuff there, and then put paid ads there.
So long as most ads remain relatively interesting/targeted, I'll keep looking. And probably clicking, too.
Consider also that Twitter users are very used to clicking on external links, because we do it all the time for links tweeted by others. I am much less likely to click on an external link in FB than on Twitter.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by unalone on Thursday March 19, 2009 @11:59AM
(#523489)
Huh! I didn't know Twitter was rolling out ads at all.
Facebook has some excellent targeting. I've gone to a few Facebook links and if I wasn't broke I'd have bought some products, too. (Right now they insist on showing me the Twilight DVD, though, which irritates me.)
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by swombat on Thursday March 19, 2009 @01:10PM
(#523615)
Yes, and so my point is, this is a masterful approach to pave the way for placing ads there.
The standard way is to place ads and juggle them about until you've figured out where they attract the more clicks. Twitter's way appears to first manufacture a high-interest area (by putting cool twitter stuff there), then, once people are used to seeing nifty stuff there, start selling that nifty space to others.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by anatoli on Thursday March 19, 2009 @01:11PM
(#523619)
Actually, they are very real, internal ads. They rotate and point to different sections of the site, sometimes it's widgets, other times it's the search, etc.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by ryanwaggoner on Thursday March 19, 2009 @12:29PM
(#523545)
comparing apples and oranges. google has way more expenses than the coffee shop next door, but that doesn't mean it's harder for google to earn a profit.
my personal opinion is that facebook users on the whole are a lot more engaged than twitter users. i know an awful lot of folks on twitter who use it as a broadcast medium rather than a place for conversation and connection. facebook seems to be a place where people actually connect with each other more. granted, this is all anecdotal.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by axod on Thursday March 19, 2009 @12:28PM
(#523540)
Last numbers I heard for FB were 800+ employees, and 10,000+ servers. Both just a tad excessive, although I guess you have to spend the VC money somehow.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by ryanwaggoner on Thursday March 19, 2009 @12:39PM
(#523562)
The fact that we have invented the term "monetization" to delineate the point at which fun web projects try and become true businesses only underscores the fact that much of Web 2.0 is about getting rich (relatively) quickly, rather than building sustainable businesses.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by nir on Thursday March 19, 2009 @11:17AM
(#523389)
Favorite quote: "Sanford Bernstein’s bearish approach is based on its belief the Web 2.0 model of building something and then figuring out a way to make money is no longer valid."
IIRC, that was supposed to be our lesson from the dot.com bubble :) The early hype about "Web 2.0" was that this time around we're doing it for cheap and with a revenue model...
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by preview on Thursday March 19, 2009 @11:34AM
(#523426)
I disagree. The lesson from the dot.com bubble was that anything put on the Internet could be monetized and would become profitable. That was (and is) silly.
The "Web 2.0" mindset, at least the mindset I've seen most often on HN, is build it fast and get it out there to see if it has value. I also think there is some thought to how the solution can be monetized, but plans change in response to changing environments.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by nir on Thursday March 19, 2009 @12:47PM
(#523585)
Yes, but how do you judge if it has value? It seems that, as in the dot.com era, it's still not judged by income, but by number of users (or just level of hype - Twitter only has ~6 million users).
Current technology does make this valid in some sense - you can launch very cheaply and, if you attract enough interest, get bought by a larger company. As I understand this is YC's general approach. But it seems that Twitter tends to refuse buyout offers, so I they are more of a classic dot.com.
Re:Doubts About Twitter the Business
by ryanwaggoner on Thursday March 19, 2009 @12:37PM
(#523558)
The "Web 2.0" mindset, at least the mindset I've seen most often on HN, is build it fast and get it out there to see if it has value.
Sadly, this is not the Web 2.0 mindset. If it was things like Twitter and Facebook would have been "monetized" a few months after their launch, when it was abundantly clear that they offered value to people.
Both companies have potential valuation issues, however.
Facebook already has ads, though, and they're evolving a business plan constantly. Twitter has nothing. So they have less experience with raising money and they've got more to lose.
I've clicked on those ads that they have now already. And since they were interesting things, I'm likely to keep an eye on that area for the foreseeable future, to see if anything else neat crops up.
Seems like an excellent way to roll-out ads... first, make the users look at the area where you'll place the ads, by putting interesting stuff there, and then put paid ads there.
So long as most ads remain relatively interesting/targeted, I'll keep looking. And probably clicking, too.
Consider also that Twitter users are very used to clicking on external links, because we do it all the time for links tweeted by others. I am much less likely to click on an external link in FB than on Twitter.
Facebook has some excellent targeting. I've gone to a few Facebook links and if I wasn't broke I'd have bought some products, too. (Right now they insist on showing me the Twilight DVD, though, which irritates me.)
http://www.itworld.com/business/64445/twitter-house-ads-appe...
HN has a lot of prime homepage real estate to the right, but if they put a link there to the submission form, it's hardly an ad :)
The standard way is to place ads and juggle them about until you've figured out where they attract the more clicks. Twitter's way appears to first manufacture a high-interest area (by putting cool twitter stuff there), then, once people are used to seeing nifty stuff there, start selling that nifty space to others.
Is the same true about FaceBook?
Twitter has 20 employees, a cash burn rate of $5m a year according to the article.
Facebook has hundreds of employees and servers... probably a lot harder to make a profit.
my personal opinion is that facebook users on the whole are a lot more engaged than twitter users. i know an awful lot of folks on twitter who use it as a broadcast medium rather than a place for conversation and connection. facebook seems to be a place where people actually connect with each other more. granted, this is all anecdotal.
IIRC, that was supposed to be our lesson from the dot.com bubble :) The early hype about "Web 2.0" was that this time around we're doing it for cheap and with a revenue model...
The "Web 2.0" mindset, at least the mindset I've seen most often on HN, is build it fast and get it out there to see if it has value. I also think there is some thought to how the solution can be monetized, but plans change in response to changing environments.
Current technology does make this valid in some sense - you can launch very cheaply and, if you attract enough interest, get bought by a larger company. As I understand this is YC's general approach. But it seems that Twitter tends to refuse buyout offers, so I they are more of a classic dot.com.
Sadly, this is not the Web 2.0 mindset. If it was things like Twitter and Facebook would have been "monetized" a few months after their launch, when it was abundantly clear that they offered value to people.