I've been both on the programming and business side, and done a little hiring. Pretty much the only indicator I can always apply is projects done outside of paid work.

I start with the usual "reverse a linked list" stuff or easier, go through education and work experience, play the whole game, but the thing that really does it for me is that he learns erlang in his free time, or has a self-made javascript game on his home page (if he's a web developer) or whatever. It only has to be completely non-paid non-contracted work. Then of course I look at the source code, but the decision is already half made.

There is a much longer list of things that disqualify a candidate. Anything Entreprise, any formal certifications outside college, personality (yes, I discriminate. I like working with people I like working with, apparently). But a checklist for a good programmer, I doubt it can be applied successfully.

edit: * entreprise = using oracle for mom&pop shops, not working in big companies. Sounds obvious, but it's sadly too common mindset to use the most expensive/complicated solution instead of the cheapes/simplest, to the point that just hearing "entreprise" turns me off.