The "second camp" that you describe does not really understand the situation. 6 months is the plea bargain. If Aaron rejected that, which is the path he was taking, he was facing anything in the range from winning the case to likely the 6-7 years the prosecution was pushing for.

Thus there was a significant chance that he'd have gotten more than a few months of jail time.

Now re-read Carmen Ortiz. She never said she was only seeking a few months in jail. She said she offered him only 6 months in jail and was never going to seek the maximum sentence. What she didn't publicly say is that she was going to seek 6-7 years.