Re:"Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026 (1960)
by klik99 on Friday November 13, 2026 @03:45PM
(#50489395)
> "Beautifully shows how most predictions that extrapolate from past data are too simplistic"
IMO the actual mechanism is people ignore non-itineraries and assume that trends will continue upwards at the same exponential rate with no down force. Often at the start of a trend it hasn't triggered or hit against the hard limits, for example Moore's law hitting quantum mechanics.
It's so common I wish there was a pithy "logical fallacy" name for it, almost every extrapolation suffers from it, from superintelligence to housing prices and the stock market.
IMO the actual mechanism is people ignore non-itineraries and assume that trends will continue upwards at the same exponential rate with no down force. Often at the start of a trend it hasn't triggered or hit against the hard limits, for example Moore's law hitting quantum mechanics.
It's so common I wish there was a pithy "logical fallacy" name for it, almost every extrapolation suffers from it, from superintelligence to housing prices and the stock market.