Can you elaborate on this please? I find this claim interesting and probably true. But it's not clear how you reached that conclusion.
It's worth adding a little about the subprime debt crisis and the GFC. Mortgage debt is probably the most liberal in terms of collaterization rules. You can borrow so much more of the value because housing was considered "safe". So subprime loans started at a low rate but then that rate kept going up. There's more to it of course but the point I want to highlight how this was a case of complicated debt that exploded.
Private equity is really the next generation of corporate raiding. Here's how it works. You start a PE fund and raise capital for it. You then identify a target you can profit from and do what's called a leveraged buy out ("LBO"). You borrow more money against your capital and the business.
A lot of businesses have been poorly performing and they're sitting on a ton of real estate appreciation. Toys R Us was a big example of this. Toys R Us was an old company so owned a lot of its stores. But now that unrealized gain doomed them.
The PE firm will typically restructure a company into two companies: one holds the business operations. The other holds all the real estate. The first one will have binding contracts to rent from the real estate holding company.
Somewhere in all this the new owners will take a loan out against the company's assets to repay the LBO. So they've basically gotten a company for "free" and just loaded it up with debt. The financial arrangements will be complex and you may find that the rents will explode in future years, ultimately dooming the business operations. Now if you're a PE firm, you don't want to hold onto that. You want to sell it. That usually means relisting it on some exchange.
At some future point the business collapses, the PE firms often still owns the real estate and because that real estate has usually kept appreciating, it's even more profit.
So if the real estate hadn't appreciated so much, Toys R Us and many other companies simply wouldn't have been targeted this way. We killed a longstanding business that employed thousands of people so a handful of people could cash in on appreciating real estate. That's all that happened.
For this to work, somebody needs to buy the business operations half. And investors are increasingly cottoning on to this. If you can't sell it, it stays on the books and none of this works. This is where the principals in PE firms are being asked to contribute capital to keep this ball int he air until buyers can be found. Also, there are now trillions in private credit to keep this all afloat.
PE defenders will bring up Hilton and Kroger as two companies that were arguably improved by these LBOs but they are the exception.
As time has gone on, PE has gotten increasingly evil too. Now it looks for what they call "pricing power". They've invented a new term because the existing term would make what's going on obvious. It's inelastic demand. PE now loves private utilities. People need electricity. Profits are guaranteed. People also need healthcare so a PE firm will try and buy up every medical practice in an area or every vet or every trailer park.
Adam Smith:
> As soon as the land of any country has all become private property, the landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed, and demand a rent even for its natural produce
Karl Marx (quoting Adam Smith in 1844):
> Landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed
and
> The landlords,... operate a certain kind of monopoly against the tenants. The demand for their commodity, site and soil, can go on expanding indefinitely; but there is only a given, limited amount of their commodity.... The bargain struck between landlord and tenant is always advantageous to the former in the greatest possible degree.
PE is just one of many distortions that come from a system that allows people to hoard land.
>So if the real estate hadn't appreciated so much, Toys R Us and many other companies simply wouldn't have been targeted this way. We killed a longstanding business that employed thousands of people so a handful of people could cash in on appreciating real estate. That's all that happened.
Which is in "large enough to direct blame and shame their way" part a side effect of the environmentalists and zoning karens who joined forces to combat the concrete jungle. Everything they did had the side effect of increasing the value of an already built, already paved site.
It used to be 50yr ago that an aged out facility, even a clean one, was a liability. Because if you wanted to do anything there you'd have to demo it or rehab it up to modern expectations/competitiveness (note I did not say code) which would cost more than starting from nothing. Last century's liabilities are now lucrative "brownfield redevelopments".
YIMBYism is often used an excuse for rampant deregulation. I believe that private developers won't ever build our way out of this problem because that hurts profit. It takes the government as a major player to solve this problem. People will point to examples like Austin having declining rents as a direct result of supply but that doesn't really invalidate my criticism.
UK supermarkets used to engage in a practice called land banking [1]. Basically they would buy up land and do nothing with it. They were buying it to prevent competition. And if land kept going up in value there was no cost in doing it. Ultimately Aldi and Lidl came along and ate their lunch by building in less desirable but cheaper areas. But another consequence was that it restricted the supply of housing.
What YIMBY policy would prevent land banking (hoarding)? You need something and it's not even more deregulation. The cost of just holding land needs to be higher. You need some form of land value tax [2].
More than a decade ago, I remember hearing about "investors" buying up all the trailer parks and jacking up the rents (eg [3]). This is entirely parasitic behavior. Any form of ground rent on permanent structures like this should be somewhere between illegal and uneconomical. The land of the trailer parks should be co-owned by the residents, period.
This has a huge negative social cost too. Trailer parks are often the housing of last resort for many. Make it unaffordable and people end up living in cars and them ultimately the streets. So what have we achieved here other than padding the profit margins of investors? We've shifted that cost onto the government, which is just another wealth transfer from tax coffers to the wealthy.
Ten years ago, Xi Jinping quietly popped China's real estate bubble, which has been in decline ever since. He famous said [4] "Houses are for living, not for speculation". It's funny reading Western reporting on this because China's real estate recession is viewed as a negative when it's just a correction from intentional state policy.
That required government intervention in the housing market. This would never have happened with any set of incentives of private developers.
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/26/tesco-hoard...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax
[3]: https://publicintegrity.org/inequality-poverty-opportunity/w...
[4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houses_are_for_living,_not_for...
This is not immediately ringing a bell. Are you referring to the 5-7% drop in energy demand associated with the global pandemic?
Without recounting the entire saga, OPEC tries to maintain a floor and a ceiling for oil prices. Too low and they don't make enough money. Too high and it causes political problems. They meet every 3 months to project demand and they adjust supply accordingly. Some members cheat and lie about their output but the system generally works. One thing that keeps the Gulf powers in line is military support, particularly Saudi Arabia.
When the pandemic hit in March 2020, demand cratered. Futures prices briefly went negative because producers had nowhere to store oil and nobody was buying. This is where Trump cajoled MBS into cutting supply in a 2 year deal. This superseded the normal 3 month review and adjustment process so it wasn't even necessary. This deal was huge too. It would initially cut global supply by 10%.
So then in 2021 demand roared back and prices exploded. The Biden admin obviously came in in January 2021. They quietly went to MBS to get him to rescind the deal. MBS refused.
Republicans blamed Biden even though it was a Trump deal. Democrats blamed oil companies for being greedy because they, just like the Republicans, didn't want to upset Saudi Arabia even though Biden could've absolutely threatened Saudi Arabia with the weapons the US provides.
As to why MBS refused, it's complicated and there's a lot of history but a big part of it is that Trump screwed over OPEC in 2018 and (in OPEC's view) the Obama admin screwed them over in 2015 by removing the ban on crude oil exports.
What gets me though is nobody talks about the Trump 2020 OPEC deal.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/economy/special-report-trump...
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/article/business/opec-agrees-largest...
My reading of the 1000+pg Basel3 document from BiS seems to point to the weighted risk categories being fundamentally flawed (relating to valuation for those risk weighted categories, not unsurprising given the subjective value of assets), not to mention the indirect business flaws that limit new banks potentially growing the number of GSIBs, leading to concentration of risk through sieving.
AI debt seems to be supercharging the indirect stagflation indicators which started showing up a few years ago.
Most empire's above a certain size inevitably run into internal conflict from land-use issues related to rentseeking and monopoly.
Monetary policy is where the central bank changes rates. This is effective to a point. It defuses a lot of zero-interest nonsense but the primary idea was to cool the business sector by making borrowing more expensive. Thing is, we don't really do that anymore. We don't borrow a bunch of money to build a factory to make widgets. No, we simply financialize everything. Yes, we have a ton of AI debt now but (IMHO) it's not productive output. The big product and promise of AI is labor displacement. That's going to destroy the economy.
Private equity technically borrows money but usually only temporarily. The target gets bought, restructured, a loan is taken out against the assets to pay back to investors and the corpse is spun out before the debt explodes. The problem? The market seems to be wising up to this bargain and these husks need to be kept on the books longer than desired. PE firms are having to borrow to refinance. That's another house of cards in all of this.
But what really fuels PE and all of this? Real estate. Hoarding land has become the best performing asset.
So the second lever the government has is fiscal policy, specifically taxation. Prior to the pandemic, a lot of companies were afraid to raising prices too much as they'd lose market share. An energy crisis triggered a fundamental change in corporate attitudes to raising prices and we've had a ton of raising prices simply to maintain profits or in anticipation of inflation. Pepsi now is in deep trouble because they've discovered that people don't want to pay $8 for corn chips and Walmart's generic brand is $5 and probably made by the same factory.
In the wake of the pandemic some countries introduced a windfall profits tax. Basically, predatory price-raising should be punished with at least a form of wealth redistribution. These measures were few and far between however.
As an example, because of 2020 energy crisis (caused by Trump) and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe has been in a deep energy crisis for years with no end in sight. Many European governments have tried to protect consumers by subsidizing electricity. Well, these energy providers are making record profits. Why aren't they taxing the back end to pay for those subsidies? Instead, we just have a massive wealth transfer from European governments to (often private) utilities and gas producers.
But fiscal policy, particularly in the US, never gets discussed int his way. We could solve so many problems by simply having a 50% corporate tax rate. The standard objection is "they'll move overseas". Well, you can't move land overseas, particularly mines and oil wells. And the IRS is capable of tackling transfer pricing and profit shifting. Well, they would be if they weren't deliberately starved by successive governments. And if all else fails, punish companies for moving overseas with tariffs. That's what they're actually for.
So, back to your question, no, I don't think the theory is sound because we have a malignant tumor at the heart of our economy, which is land-hoarding.