I don't think they will ever overtake because they are probably using distillation, however once the open models pass the "good enough" threshold it won't matter.

See, users are quite price insensitive for models below the threshold, no matter how many tokens you throw at Opus 4.8 it will never be as good as Opus 5.5 because of compounding errors. Above the threshold, price becomes hugely important because results come from throwing more tokens at a problem rather than using a better model.