Do you dispute that an AI can be 100x better at boilerplate and scaffolding? I readily believe that. And if someone's mental model of their job is that they select the right AbstractBeanFactoryFactory pattern and then write a bunch of boilerplate then sadly they are completely outcompeted by AI. In the future nobody will pay you to write boilerplate.

But 100x on scaffolding or 50x for tests obviously doesn't translate into 100x or 50x overall throughput. The doc states, "The compression ratio between human-team time and AI-assisted time ranges from 3x (research) to 100x (boilerplate)". So Tan's position is not that you have 100x gains, but that you have 100x gains on tedium.

From personal experience depending on the type of software these numbers sound reasonable. Some software is more difficult than others. But for plain old web dev, yes you can absolutely crush it with AI now.

[delayed]

Fully agreed, which is why I put the rest of my comment in there. TFA also talks about this, as does Tan.