I didn't discuss how I think the tech will change. I pointed out a current gap in crystalizing knowledge acquisition gained on-task because I feel that gap is still under-appreciated. There's a lot of very interesting work trying to identify how to cost effectively narrow that gap (Dynamic Modular Adapters, Background Distillation, Test-Time Training, etc).
They all can be effective to varying degrees in different ways but they also all have their own gaps and trade-offs. As of now, there's no clear path to per-instance knowledge crystalization that's both broadly generalizable and scales cost-effectively. Will both be solved eventually? I think almost certainly. Will both be solved in the next 2-5 years? Maybe... but it smells like the kind of fundamental problem that's 'wicked' hard, so I wouldn't be surprised if the LLM you and I can afford to daily drive in 2 - 5 years is far more capable and 'smart' but isn't that much better at automatic crystalized learning from on-task knowledge acquisition than the best LLMs are today.
To be clear, LLMs are fabulously useful in myriad ways and I think they'll continue getting much more useful in many more ways. That's so much a given, it makes identifying gaps fundamental enough there's a good chance they won't be solved in 2-5 years especially interesting.
Sci-fi stuff aside, it's not just a matter of the AI's telling the supporting tech what to do. We are already at the point where we can't predict what the AI will do to the supporting tech. Blender, for example, is mostly traditional computer science with some physics and art direction thrown in. It's damn hard to use.
This is not a criticism, that's just where we are in developing a UI for the math and physics and art direction. Just using the AI to make for me UI changes, convenience features, and special utilities has drastically changed not only the way I work, but the kind of projects I'll undertake. I think nothing of having Claude whip up a special physics based particle system or compositing stack these days. I could have done that in the past, but it would have been so much work for a one time job I wouldn't consider it. I'd just brute force a solution with manual keyframes and a lot of trial and error.
And while I can program and solve (simple) physics problems, its not my day job. My day job is telling stories and explaining things with animated narratives.
Earlier today I was asked to help with some animations explaining how musical scales worked and to come up with ways to visualize them. Using Claude I've already got Blender doing a credible job at creating musical notation and linking it up to a (sort of) physically accurate sound wave simulation/visualization. Not done yet, but it's looking promising. This is within a few tens of minutes of an instructional designer asking me what might be possible for the topic. And I already have a sound synthesizer written in javascript (by Claude) that I used for a project a while back. Hooking them together is just a json file or two away...
Even if the Super Intelligence never materializes, just using current LLMs as an amplifier for existing technology is going to change things into something unrecognizable. And something that is very dangerous in the hands of human bad actors.