Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists
by dualvariable on Monday November 09, 2026 @11:54AM
(#50428176)
This article is just kind of a mess. Yeah, if you ignore all the problems, the problems go away.
Anthropic is probably the worst company to look at because they lease all their datacenter space. They don't carry the debt, they don't play the games with depreciation, and they're probably most likely to survive because of that. Detailed analysis of Anthropic's S-1 in isolation tells you almost nothing about the problematic areas of the AI sector.
And there are a few really comical statements that render this whole thing unserious:
> The reason why AI companies are spending so much money is to rollout data centres to run the AI in the first place. These expenses are one-off purchases, not regular operating expenses. Once all the data centres are built, AI spending is going to plummet.
Okay, shares of NVDA just crashed to a round-off error close to zero.
There are other reasons why that statement is not accurate, but clearly the author hasn't even bothered to think through their argument at all.
> In a pinch, AI companies can also cut costs by no longer allowing people to use their products for free and temporarily suspending expensive AI research. This can be implemented instantly, whereas other kinds of expenses like leases and spending commitments are a lot harder to cut.
- AI companies are limited in their ability to jack up prices by open models being good enough and inference being cheap enough that they don't have a lot of price flexibility. If you tried to squeeze $20/mo ChatGPT subscriptions up to $200/mo then customers would disappear to other providers.
- And if you instantly switch off model building, 90% of the demand for datacenters evaporates, NVDA collapses, the Neoclouds crater to zero and go bankrupt -- AND THIS IS THE AI BUBBLE COLLAPSING.
Anthropic is probably the worst company to look at because they lease all their datacenter space. They don't carry the debt, they don't play the games with depreciation, and they're probably most likely to survive because of that. Detailed analysis of Anthropic's S-1 in isolation tells you almost nothing about the problematic areas of the AI sector.
And there are a few really comical statements that render this whole thing unserious:
> The reason why AI companies are spending so much money is to rollout data centres to run the AI in the first place. These expenses are one-off purchases, not regular operating expenses. Once all the data centres are built, AI spending is going to plummet.
Okay, shares of NVDA just crashed to a round-off error close to zero.
There are other reasons why that statement is not accurate, but clearly the author hasn't even bothered to think through their argument at all.
> In a pinch, AI companies can also cut costs by no longer allowing people to use their products for free and temporarily suspending expensive AI research. This can be implemented instantly, whereas other kinds of expenses like leases and spending commitments are a lot harder to cut.
- AI companies are limited in their ability to jack up prices by open models being good enough and inference being cheap enough that they don't have a lot of price flexibility. If you tried to squeeze $20/mo ChatGPT subscriptions up to $200/mo then customers would disappear to other providers.
- And if you instantly switch off model building, 90% of the demand for datacenters evaporates, NVDA collapses, the Neoclouds crater to zero and go bankrupt -- AND THIS IS THE AI BUBBLE COLLAPSING.