News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists. Parent comment

Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by claytongulick on Monday November 09, 2026 @10:56AM (#50427288)
> It is looking entirely plausible to me that Anthropic will make a profit in 2027.

Then you should invest heavily in their IPO, I suppose.

You'll do much better than those of us who believe there is no way their financials can ever work.

I came to my conclusion a different way, I ran different models locally and saw the amout of compute required for basic things. From that I extrapolated some napkin unit economics, and I couldn't find any way to build a profitable business from it.

I don't assume I'm the smartest guy in the room though, so for all of our sake, I hope you're right.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by user43928 on Monday November 09, 2026 @12:50PM (#50428891)
In what sense did your test show no profitability?

I'm not sure if that is relevant here, but I've often seen people dramatically overestimate inference costs.

If we look at eg. https://inferencex.semianalysis.com/run/kimi-k31-pro-on-b300, it suggests that SOTA models are likely served in the API with profit margins in the ballpark of 98%.

[ Parent | on HN ]