I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists

Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by mixdup on Monday November 09, 2026 @10:38AM (#50427080)

Your point is valid, but there is a flaw in the premise. They don't need to pay off the $5 trillion in 20 years. They just need to be able to service it. If they can use that debt to bootstrap the company, as long as they can pay the interest and issue new debt, they can keep that $5 trillion on the books longer than either of us will be alive

I suspect if you go back to look at say, Microsoft's books from when they went public to today they have never been debt free

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Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by toomuchtodo on Monday November 09, 2026 @11:04AM (#50427416)

All of the data up to this thread show that there is not enough revenue on the current uptake trajectory to service this debt, nor will there be (through some combination of generative AI not being that revolutionary from a productivity perspective and open weight options).

Could this change? Maybe. That's the bet.

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Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by mixdup on Monday November 09, 2026 @11:27AM (#50427787)

For sure, I wasn't giving an opinion on whether or not they could service the debt, but servicing it is a much different bar they have to meet vs. actually paying it off

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Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by toomuchtodo on Tuesday November 10, 2026 @04:05AM (#50437793)

AI Bubble: The Calls are Coming From Inside the House: Apollo and Ares Research Torches AI Debt Hype - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50437784 - November 2026

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Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists by nyeah on Monday November 09, 2026 @02:11PM (#50430161)

[delayed]

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