https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.11901
This paper puts the failure rate of A100s closer to 0.3%/yr, H100s under 1%.
I guess we will see. But I would not expect GPU hardware to last that long until there is some underutilisation in data centres.
Mind you, most of the H100s that have ever been sold are still in their packaging, I suspect. Or at least not plugged in.
Re:I'm Not Convinced the AI Bubble Exists
by colejohnson66 on Monday November 09, 2026 @11:20AM
(#50427666)
Yep. Satya Nadella once quipped that they have GPUs sitting on shelves because they don't have enough power.
> [...] because quite frankly, the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it’s power — it’s sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough close to power. So, if you can’t do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can’t plug in. In fact, that is my problem today. It’s not a supply issue of chips; it’s actually the fact that I don’t have warm shells to plug into.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...
If they don't burn out after two or three. Annualized failure rates are about 9% according to Meta.
Less than half of the original hardware will be running after ten years even if you assume that rate does not increase over time. Do H100s come with replacement guarantees?