"We've made it pretty far with some pretty unstable humans in command of planet-killer weapons. I'm not overly concerned"

Translation: my house is entirely doused in gasoline and there are 2 unstable humans arguing with each other both doused in gasoline in my house. They are both holding matches and threatening each other that they will drop it and kill us all... But you know they have been arguing for a while and nothing bad has happened so I'm not overly concerned.

Inductive reasoning fails catastrophically as a tool for calibrating actual risk when you're looking to avoid black swans.